The market finally cooled

For two years every broker email screamed, “Sign now or pay 40% more by summer.” Q4 broke that cycle. Vacancy around Moscow’s outer ring crept to 3.8%, and landlords quietly revived free months. Current quotes I pulled last week:

Why demand shifted

• Delivery giants hit pause. They absorbed their 2024 builds and now optimize instead of hoarding space.
• Importers learned cross-docking. A cosmetics distributor I follow carved a mezzanine into a cheaper B-class box plus overhead camera tracking; rough concrete no longer scares the auditors.
• Power capacity matters more than logos. Sites without upgraded substations get ghosted by tenants running AMR fleets.

The new due diligence question is “Can this panel support 1.5 MW on day one?” not “Is there a branded lounge?”

How to negotiate in February 2026

1. If you’re light on automation: play Class B options against each other and demand CPI-linked escalations instead of blanket 10% hikes.
2. If you run robotics: sign the premium space now but ask for infrastructure subsidies—owners will fund floor reinforcement faster than they’ll slash headline rent.
3. If you’re land banking: watch Zelenograd-style projects that quietly upgraded power; those leases close overnight once the utility gives the green light.

Warehouse leasing stopped being roulette. It’s chess again, with power, floors, and service teams as the pieces. The smartest tenants treat their broker calls like pre-flight checklists, not panic buttons.